It seems like Brexit is a never ending process. The UK was
supposed to leave the EU in March 2019, yet we are still no further forward as
to what direction the UK is going to take. This makes trading the GBP extremely
difficult, because when the leaders of the country don’t know what is
happening, how are traders meant to know? But, we can make some generalised predictions
of what may happen in the near future.
Although the pound sterling began 2018 as one of the best performing
currencies, due to continued ongoing Brexit turbulence since then, it has
become a somewhat yo-yo currency. With all the drama that is going on in the
British Parliament at the moment, this has only added to the uncertainty about
In March 2019, the British pound was able to reach highs not
seen since before Brexit, as it was tipped that Theresa May’s withdrawal bill
would get through Parliament, which it ultimately didn’t. In fact, the bill was
defeated by an incredible 149 votes. But, the pound did manage to rise with the
news that the British MPs voted overwhelmingly to reject the ‘no deal’ scenario.
This eliminated the dangers of a No Deal Brexit.
Despite this rejection of a No Deal Brexit, the uncertainty
grew just the morning after when the vote was considered to be not legally
binding, which made the pound drop. More uncertainty was created when the
Speaker of the House of Commons prevented a 3rd vote on Prime Minister
May’s withdrawal agreement, which created a dead lock situation, with nobody
knowing what direction the UK would take next.
As you can see, with the current unpredictable political
situation, sterling will continue to remain unpredictable.
But, it can be assumed that if a withdrawal agreement for an
orderly Brexit is achieved, this will see a big rise in the pound. If for any reason
a No Deal Brexit occurs, although unlikely at this stage of the process, we
will see big falls in the pound. If you are a trader, there could be big gains
to be made if you keep your finger on the pulse of British Politics. Nobody
knows what the future will bring.
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